Understanding Why Flights to Japan and China Cost More Now

Coming out of the pandemic, there was a surge in airfare, but then prices began to level out. In some cases, airfare even got cheaper than it was pre-pandemic. It was true for domestic flights, Latin America, the Caribbean, and eventually even Europe. 

Don't waste more money. Learn the best time to book flights and secure the best deals now!

But there’s one region where flight prices still have yet to get back to pre-pandemic levels: flights to Asia. 

While flight capacity may still be down to Asia compared to what it was pre-pandemic (more on that below), airfare to Asia has actually been getting cheaper since early 2023. 

Here’s why, and why we think things will keep improving in the near future.

Flight volume to Asia is down 18%

Comparing the first quarter of 2026 with the same period in 2019, the number of transpacific flights is down 18%, according to Cirium. The single biggest driver of cheap flights is competition between airlines; a big drop in flight capacity like this almost always correlates with a big increase in fares. 

What does this mean? Asia fares are higher today than they were in 2019, but they’re lower than in 2023, thanks to that increased post-pandemic flight volume. 

Also important to note: While flight volume is up domestically, to Europe, and other key regions compared to pre-pandemic, it’s still down to Asia. This means there’s still plenty of room for transpacific airlines to grow their offerings, which would help drive fares down further. 

Flight volume to China is really down 

Per Cirium, flight volume between the US and China is down 73% when comparing Q1 of 2026 and Q1 of 2019. That’s a huge deal for flights anywhere in Asia because, pre-pandemic, Chinese airlines flooded the transpacific market with daily sub-$400 transpacific fares. Even if you didn’t fly those airlines, they helped drive down prices on Delta, Japan Airlines, and more.

Few budget airlines fly to Asia 

One reason flights to Europe have gotten so much cheaper in the past decade is the proliferation of new transatlantic budget airlines like Norse, PLAY, and others. Their cheap fares force full-service airlines to slash prices in order to compete. But there are very few budget airlines flying between the continental US and Asia—currently just Japan’s Zipair and Korea’s Air Premia.

What’s “cheap” is always changing

You’ll often hear me talk about how 200 passengers on a flight often paid 200 different prices to be there. There’s an average price, some who overpaid, and some who underpaid. (Going members always underpay.) 

Underpaying from LAX to Japan in the 2019 halcyon days meant $450 roundtrip; today, it’s more like $550. What’s “cheap” to Asia today is $100–$200 more expensive than what was cheap pre-pandemic, but the long-haul budget carriers are helping. We’ve already seen fares to Asia for under $500 roundtrip from select West Coast cities in 2026.

Ready for Asia? Find the cheapest flights to Japan and start your adventure today!

Here are a few examples of flights we’ve found for Going members so far this year: 

• LA to Tokyo for $425 roundtrip 
• Las Vegas to Hong Kong for $563 roundtrip 
• NYC to Mumbai for $572 roundtrip 
• San Francisco to Seoul for $640 roundtrip 

Fares have been falling

Between July 2019 and July 2022, airfare to Asia nearly doubled, driven in large part by border closures and low capacity. Since then, fares have been on a one-way ratchet downward.

Historically, flight prices between the US and Asia tend to have two annual spikes: one in summer and one in December. But for the past few years, the peak highs have been lower and the trough lows have been lower as well.

In fact, during the 24 months between March 2023 and February 2026, flight prices fell 23 of those months on a year-over-year basis. (The single month of increase was less than 1%.)

So while fares today are still higher than pre-pandemic, the trendline is positive.

Good news for 2026 and beyond

Looking at the first half of each year, here’s how flight volume between the US and Asia compared to 2019, per Cirium:

• 2022: Down 69%
• 2023: Down 40%
• 2024: Down 22%
• 2026: Down 18%

If you’re like me, praying for cheap Japan flights, it’s good to know that when you compare April–December 2026 to the same nine months in 2019, capacity is only down 8%.

These are all excellent indicators for those awaiting the return of cheap flights to Asia. (Bonus: Everything here applies virtually the same for flights to Australia and Oceania.) While cheap transpacific fares won’t return overnight, the gradual addition of more capacity will slowly drive down fares and make 2026 Asia prices better than 2024.

Prices to Asia may not be as low as they were, but join Going and we'll notify you when prices on flights to Asia drop.