Every year, I make predictions for the year of travel to come. I went 10 for 12 on my 2024 travel predictions. Let’s see if I can beat it this year, shall we?
Here are my 12 predictions for 2025—8 pieces of good news for travelers and 4 pieces of not-so-good news. In 12 months, we’ll see how these panned out.
The Good
1. There will be 3–7 mistake fares.
One of our most important jobs at Going is to catch mistake fares and let members know ASAP so they can book them before they disappear. (A few examples from 2024, all roundtrip: Dublin for $114, Finland for 19k points in business class, Cabo Verde for $680 in business class).
Airlines have been improving over the years at preventing mistake fares, but they’re still nowhere near perfect. Expect a mistake fare every few months in 2025.
Check out more of our best flight deals of 2024 here.
2. You’ll have more elbow room.
The slowdown in travel demand will have a silver lining: less-crowded planes. How full a plane is is called the “load factor,” which typically hovers around 75–90%.
In the first eight months of 2024 that we have data for, the load factor averaged 83.6%. In 2025, that figure will drop, and you’ll get to enjoy more empty middle seats.
3. More flights to Asia than 2024.
In 2024, there were 128,416 scheduled flights between the US and Asia, 22% fewer than in 2019. Flights to Asia have been the slowest to rebound in the pandemic’s wake—thanks in large part to geopolitical tensions with China. But I’m expecting at least 5% more US–Asia flights this year than last, and more deals as a result.
4. More deals to Europe than 2024.
In 2024, Going’s travel experts found 912 cheap flights to Europe for our members with an average economy price of $511 roundtrip (normal non-Going price: $910 roundtrip). In 2025, as airlines add transatlantic capacity and fight one another on price, we’ll find even more deals to Europe.
5. No bag fee increases.
A sadly correct prediction of ours last year was that US airlines would increase their bag fees. After most carriers bumped their price in February 2024 to $35–$40, I think that new price will stay put throughout 2025. None of the full-service US airlines (Delta, United, American, Alaska, JetBlue) will increase their bag fees this year.
6. Another US airline will announce free onboard wifi.
Free onboard wifi has slowly become more prevalent, with JetBlue, Delta, Hawaiian, and soon United and Spirit all offering it. This year, we’ll hear an announcement from at least one other airline (Alaska? Frontier?) promising free onboard wifi for travelers.
7. Fewer-than-average flight cancellations.
Long-term, around 2% of flights in the US get canceled. This year, we’ll see fewer than that.
8. More airline–restaurant brand crossovers.
Collaborations between airlines and food brands have become trendy, with Delta recently opting to serve Shake Shack burgers onboard. (Of course, three decades ago United served McDonald’s Happy Meals onboard.) This year, we’ll see at least one more airline partner with a popular food brand.
The Bad
9. Airfare will increase in 2025.
Here’s how airfare changed in the past five years:
- 2020: -17%
- 2021: -4%
- 2022: +36%
- 2023: -12%
- 2024: +5%
I don’t think we’ll see a wild swing this year, but with airlines slowing flight capacity and budget airlines struggling, I’m expecting somewhat higher fares a year from now. Hope I’m wrong!
10. At least one month with fewer YoY passengers.
Ever since February 2021, the number of monthly air travelers has exceeded the same month of the previous year. I’m guessing that streak ends in 2025. With pandemic-induced pent-up demand now fully exhausted, we’ll see fewer passengers in at least one month compared to the previous year.
11. There will be a US airline merger.
After successfully predicting a merger in 2023 (Alaska–Hawaiian), then no mergers in 2024, I’m predicting we will see another merger this year. The most likely is Spirit getting bought out of bankruptcy by another airline (Frontier? JetBlue?), but you could also see one of the other smaller budget airlines getting gobbled up.
12. Higher-than-average flight delays.
Long-term, around 20% of flights in the US get delayed. This year, we’ll see more than that.
The results
I’ve been making annual flight predictions since 2022. Here’s how they’ve panned out:
In January 2025, I made 12 new predictions—8 good developments for travelers and 4 bad ones.
Looking back now, my predictions were once again 10 for 12! Even better, the two predictions I got wrong were (a) one of the negative forecasts, and (b) many more mistake fares than I’d anticipated.
1. There will be 3–7 mistake fares
Verdict: ❌
If there’s a prediction I love that was wrong, it was underestimating the number of mistake fares. After years stuck in the single-digits, 2025 was a banner year: Our team at Going found 17 mistake fares.
A few of my personal favorites (all fares roundtrip):
- NYC to Dublin for $239
- Philadelphia to Prague for $866 in business class
- Atlanta to São Paulo for $287
2. You’ll have more elbow room
Verdict: ✅
In 2024, the “load factor”—how full a plane is—came in at 83.6%. This year, it was a notch lower, 82.2%.*
Why were planes less packed? While the number of people flying in 2025 was up just 0.5% over 2024, the number of flights was up 2.7%, according to Cirium.
3. More flights to Asia than 2024
Verdict: ✅
In 2024, there were 128,416 scheduled flights between the US and Asia, 22% fewer than in 2019. I’d predicted an increase of at least 5% this year.
In 2025, US-Asia flights came in at 136,128—an increase of 6%. A narrow victory, but still a victory!
4. More deals to Europe than 2024
Verdict: ✅
The number of cheap flights to Europe spiked this year—1,638 versus 912 last year, an increase of 80%.
That’s not because of relaxed standards. This year, Going’s deals to Europe saved $397 on average off normal prices compared to $399 last year.
Instead, it’s because airlines keep adding more transatlantic flights—nearly 10,000 more than last year, according to Cirium.
5. No bag fee increases
Verdict: ✅
While each of the full-service US airlines—Delta, United, American, Alaska, JetBlue—announced bag fee hikes in 2024, none did this year.
6. Another US airline will announce free onboard Wifi
Verdict: ✅
American Airlines joined the club, announcing in April that they would roll out free Wifi come January 2026. Only a few US airlines still charge for Wifi, but expect that to change soon.
7. Fewer-than-average flight cancellations
Verdict: ✅
The long-term average of US flight cancellations is around 2%. Fortunately, in 2025, just 1.51% of flights were canceled.
8. More airline-restaurant brand crossovers
Verdict: ✅
Delta X Shake Shack. United X Magnolia Bakery. (And old-heads remember from decades ago: United X McDonald’s Happy Meals.)
As predicted, another prominent airline-restaurant brand crossover was announced in 2025: Delta X José Andrés to bring in Spanish tapas like stuffed piquillo peppers and Spanish tortilla with pisto manchego.
9. Airfare will increase in 2025
Verdict: ✅
For the first half of 2025, this one looked dead in the water. Amidst tariff anxiety, flight prices in April plunged 8% compared to 2024.
However, unfortunately, airfare bounced back from July onward. Airfare is now 3% higher than at the end of the year in 2024.
10. At least one month with fewer YoY passengers
Verdict: ✅
Not only did this happen for the first time since February 2021, but it happened four times. In March, May, June, and November, there were fewer passengers than in the same month last year. Pandemic-induced pent-up demand is officially spent.
11. There will be a US airline merger
Verdict: ❌
I thought another airline would buy Spirit. Nobody bought Spirit.
12. Higher-than-average flight delays
Verdict: ✅
On average, ~20% of flights in the US get delayed. This year, though cancellations were lower than usual, 21.9% of flights were delayed.
* – These percentages are for the first 8 months of each year, which is the most up-to-date data available for 2025.
Last updated December 26, 2025
