Have Airfares Really Doubled in 2026? Why Flights Are So Expensive Right Now

No, airfares haven't doubled in 2026, though it might feel like they have. Average fares are up about 26% year over year, a jump, sure, but a long way from 100%.

If it feels like flights cost a fortune in 2026, you're not imagining it. Airfare has climbed month after month since late 2025, but cheap flights still exist. You just have to know where and when to look.

Key takeaways

• Average fares are up roughly 26% year over year, according to federal price data. Yes, prices have definitely gone up, but it’s nowhere near a 100% hike.
• Jet fuel is one of the largest expenses for airlines in 2026, alongside labor. A sharp run-up in fuel prices through the first quarter pushed fares higher by around late March, though prices had already started creeping up back in December 2025.
• Airlines have kept prices high even after fuel prices eased, partly because demand is strong.
• The shutdown of Spirit removed a major budget carrier, meaning full-service airlines now have more pricing power and fares can stay higher. Also, airlines are leaning into premium cabins over rock-bottom fares.
• Flexibility, the Goldilocks Window, and fare alerts are your best tools for paying below the “average” cost of airfare. 

Have airfares really doubled? What the data shows

The short answer: No. Based on the federal Consumer Price Index data, average airfare is up about 26% compared to a year ago. Prices have risen for eight straight months since December 2025, and they're now sitting just under 6% below the post-pandemic all-time high set in June 2023.

Up a lot? Yes. Doubled? Definitely not.

It's also worth noting that the increase isn't spread evenly. Fares have climbed most on domestic routes. International routes, both short-haul and long-haul, have risen too but generally by a smaller margin. Yes, a few routes, like New York to London, have jumped sharply, but not every route to Europe has. 

Why are flights so expensive right now?

Jet fuel costs

In early 2026, the US Gulf Coast jet fuel spot price jumped from around $2 a gallon in January to nearly $4 by March. Alongside labor, fuel is one of an airline's largest expenses, so a spike like that hits hard.

The International Air Transport Association estimated that global airlines would pay about $100 billion more for fuel in 2026 than the year before, with industry profits cut roughly in half. Airlines responded by quietly raising fares and fees and trimming some flights.

Since then, fuel prices have fallen, but fares have not come back down with them. Airlines have openly said they see current prices as the “right level,” helped by strong demand and a comfort with the added revenue. 

Demand is outpacing supply

Demand is running hot. Airlines for America projected summer 2026 to be the busiest in US history, with roughly 271 million travelers between June and August. Overall US capacity, meanwhile, has stayed close to flat: Airlines paused or trimmed some routes even as the biggest carriers expanded. When demand outpaces the number of available seats, airlines gain pricing power, meaning they can charge more without losing customers. 

Smaller cities often get hit hardest by these reductions, leaving fewer travel options there and handing airlines even more room to raise prices. 

Labor and staffing costs

Along with fuel, labor is one of airlines’ biggest expenses. New union contracts for pilots and flight attendants in recent years raised pay significantly, and those higher payroll costs get baked into ticket prices.

It’s a structural cost that isn’t going away, and it’s part of why fares have a higher floor than they did a few years ago.

Less competition

The biggest change is the shutdown of Spirit Airlines in May 2026, which removed one of the country's largest ultra-low-cost carriers. Fewer budget airlines means less pressure on other airlines to keep prices low.

At the same time, the industry has shifted away from the race-to-the-bottom, ultra-low-cost model toward premiumization, with airlines adding more premium seats and betting travelers will pay for comfort. 

Summer is peak season

Demand usually peaks when school's out, so June through August fares run high no matter what else is happening in the market. The winter holidays are when you can expect another spike year after year.

Last-minute flights are always pricey

Last-minute flights are expensive every year, and last-minute summer flights are the most expensive of all.

If you're searching for a trip a couple of weeks out during peak season, you're hitting the worst-case combination. However, that's not a 2026 problem. It's an always problem.

Why rising average fares don't matter

An interesting fact about airfare is that you can’t book average fares. You can only book available fares.

Here’s a quick example of why. Say two travelers are booked on the same flight from Chicago to Denver. One grabbed it early for $180 roundtrip; the other booked last minute and paid $520. Their average fare is $350, but neither of them actually paid $350. That's how averages work. When you read that “average airfare is up,” it tells you very little about the fare you can actually find on your specific route and dates.

The key thing to hold onto is that two things can be true at once: Average airfare is going up, and cheap flights are still plentiful. Both are happening in 2026.

Amid rising airfare, cheap flights still exist

Disbelief is a common reaction to a $450 roundtrip to Europe, but those fares do appear. How can airlines afford them? Because economy airfare just isn't as central to their business as it used to be.

Decades ago, airlines made the vast majority of their money selling economy tickets, so the price of those tickets mattered.

Now, they make money in many ways: business and first class seats, credit card partnerships and frequent flyer miles, corporate contracts, cargo, bag and seat fees, and hotel and rental car commissions.

The price of any single economy ticket today matters far less to the bottom line. That's exactly why a cheap seat can coexist with a $600 one on the same plane.

How can you get better deals?

Don't let expensive headlines talk you into overpaying. There are still plenty of ways to find good fares.

Book in the Goldilocks Window

The Goldilocks Window is that sweet spot: not too early, not too late.

For domestic flights, cheap fares are most likely to appear 1 to 3 months out, and for international flights, 2 to 8 months out. Traveling over a peak period like summer or the holidays? Add a couple of months to each range.

Our guide on when flight prices drop breaks this down further.

Take advantage of flexibility

Most people search flights in this order: pick the destination, pick the dates, then check the price. When price comes last, it's no surprise the flight ends up expensive.

Instead, start by seeing what cheap flights are leaving your home airport, then choose a destination, then choose your dates. Setting price first is the single biggest change you can make.

If you must travel in summer but have a little wiggle room, aim for early June (just after Memorial Day weekend, which is pricey) or the last two weeks (late August to early September), when school schedules thin out the crowds.

Remember the 21-Day Rule

The cheapest fares sometimes carry a 21-day advance-purchase requirement. So if you're waiting on a specific flight and hoping the price drops, treat three weeks before departure as your hard deadline.

After that point, fares rarely fall. In fact, they climb and often steeply. For the rare exceptions, see our tips on cheap last-minute flights.

Never overpay. Track fares with Going. 

You don’t have to keep track of airfare prices yourself. Join Going, and we'll do the watching for you, searching thousands of routes from your home airports and alerting you when fares drop.

Our members save on average 40–50%. Set your airports, pick your dream destinations, and let the deals come to you.