Points and Miles Predictions

Here are seven predictions I have for the year ahead:

We’ll see a 200,000-point signup bonus on a personal card

I predict we’ll see a personal card offer a 200,000-point signup bonus in 2026. Last year, we saw a few business cards hit this threshold, but the maximum for a personal card was 175,000 points. I expect to see this bonus on a premium card in 2026.

While we love a six-figure signup bonus, it’s also an indicator of points inflation. More points in circulation mean that card issuers, along with airline and hotel partners, raise the thresholds required for redemptions.

Check out some of our picks for the best travel cards.

Note: This is just a guess, not a current offer.

$150 is the new $95: Annual fees will go up.  

Last year, we saw several premium cards raise annual fees. In 2026, I predict the annual-fee-raising epidemic will spread to the entry-level cards.

My guess is that these cards will raise the annual fee from $95 to $150. If this materializes, this would be a bummer, because the under-$100 annual fee is part of what makes them so beginner-friendly.  

Read more: The beginner's guide to points and miles.

Note: Again, this is just speculation.

American Airlines will raise status levels.

Over the past few years, we’ve seen airlines overhaul their elite status programs, making it harder for travelers to qualify. In the past year, we saw Alaska and United make significant changes to their programs. 

The last time American Airlines changed its status program was in 2021, just after the pandemic. I think they’re due for a status refresh.

No matter which airline updates its status programs next, one thing is clear: co-branded airline credit cards are becoming increasingly powerful for attaining elite status.

Lounge access will get stricter. 

The crackdown is coming. I predict airport lounge access will get even stricter in 2026. 

We’ve already started to see some cards charge for plus-ones, and other cards limit the number of annual lounge visits you’re permitted.

I predict we’ll start to see Priority Pass lounges begin imposing restrictions to their lounges in 2026. 

Check out some of the best cards offering airport lounge access.

Airlines devaluing partner awards is the new trend. 

In 2025, we saw fan favorites Flying Blue and Singapore KrisFlyer raise prices on their own award tickets. 

This year, I expect airlines to devalue partner awards. This is when you use one airline’s miles to book a flight operated by another airline—such as booking a United flight with miles from Turkish Airlines, one of its Star Alliance partners. 

In fact, this trend is already underway. Turkish is doing just that, and British Airways will be increasing partner award redemptions by 15 percent!

Award ticket prices to popular destinations will increase by 20% in 2026.

This one’s also not good. I predict that airlines will increase the award ticket prices on popular routes. I’m thinking flights like Chicago to Paris, DC to Rome, or Los Angeles to Tokyo—will increase.

Debit card airline miles are back. 

It’s giving 2006, not 2026. Debit card rewards were a thing of the early 2000s, but Gen Z loves debit cards, so I think we’re going to see more debit cards offer airline and travel rewards.

Results of 2025 predictions

2025 was the year of the premium cards! We saw new premium cards enter the market and several established ones hike their annual fees. 

Here's what I predicted in 2025:

Credit cards will include special one-time statement credits as part of a limited-time offer.

• Verdict: Correct. Though candidly, I expected more cards to include this.

More co-branded airline credit cards will become powerful tools to earn elite status.

• Verdict: Correct. More co-branded airline credit cards can now earn more status miles per year.

Amex will lose Hawaiian Airlines as a transfer partner.

• Verdict: Correct. After Hawaiian merged with Alaska Airlines, Alaska rolled out a brand new loyalty currency called Atmos Rewards in mid-2025.

Another airline will devalue its awards.

• Verdict: Correct. Flying Blue kicked it off in early 2026, and Singapore KrisFlyer followed. Turkish Miles&Smiles and British Airways Executive Club announced increases in award tickets at the end of 2025.

We’ll see a one-time 20% sale for redemptions to Australia.

• Verdict: Correct. This was a wilder prediction, but American did have roundtrip tickets to Sydney for 60,000 AAdvantage miles in economy. That's 25% off the sticker price!

We’ll see two points and miles mistake fares in 2025.

• Verdict: Wrong. Unfortunately.